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CorrelAid TidyTuesday Challenge: Electoral potential of migrant communities
Around 6.3 million German voters in the 2017 federal election had a so-called migration background - that is, they or at least one parent was born abroad. Their overall share, about 10 percent of the electorate, will continue to rise in the coming years due to demographic trends and rising naturalization rates among the 8 million foreign citizens in Germany. However, due to their supposedly small size and lack of voice, they and their concerns are too often overlooked by policymakers.
In cooperation with Citizens for Europe (https://citizensforeurope.org), Arndt Leininger (CorrelAid e.V. and Chemnitz University of Technology) and Julius Lagodny (Cornell University) have therefore for the first time estimated how influential the voices of people with a migration background can be on this and subsequent federal elections. To do so, they used the microcensus to estimate the number of eligible voters with an immigrant background for each of the 299 federal electoral districts. It turns out that in many constituencies, eligible voters with a migration background can make the difference: their number in many cases exceeds the number of votes that lie between the first- and second-place direct candidates.
Citizens for Europe, Arndt and Julius provide their dataset exclusively for #tidytuesday. For each constituency (N = 299), the dataset contains information on the number of eligible voters with a migration background, the number of residents with a migration background overall, the results of the 2017 Bundestag election, and socioeconomic and demographic structural data. The dataset, especially in combination with shapefiles provided by the Federal Election Commissioner, thus offers a wide range of possibilities for data visualizations with a visual "wow" as well as a political "aha" factor.
The best visualizations will be included in a high-profile Citizens for Europe policy paper and will be rewarded with a prize of 50 euros. We intend to publish all other visualizations on the CorrelAid blog simultaneously with the publication of the project report. However, this particular format also implies that you should only share your visualizations internally within CorrelAid until the policy paper is published in early September.
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